Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
